March 2009 Statistics - Santa Barbara Real Estate Market

January 31 - March 31, 2009 Statistics

(Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito, Santa Barbara, Hope Ranch & Goleta)

For starters, March ’09 had approximately the same number of Home Estate/PUD sales as February ‘09. Generally by this time in the year, there is an increase in closed sales, but ’09 has not shown this yet, although I do expect to see this in the coming months. There is a new energy in the Santa Barbara real estate market ... something in the air. It seems to be the perfect storm of low interest rates and some great values to be had. Open houses are much busier than they have been in recent months, and we're even seeing multiple offers again (except not quite like 2003 and 2004, so don't worry). The median sales price rose in March to the mid to low $800,000s from the low $700,000s of the previous month.

Pending listings rose in March '09 to about 15% above the numbers for the same time last year. The properties that went into escrow in March of this year covered a wide spectrum of prices with a substantial number coming in above $1 million and even some above $5 million, but the median list price for homes that went into escrow in March was in the mid $800,000 range, which means that the median sold price of $850,000 should remain about the same for the next month or so. Even with a lower price point, more homes entering escrow means more homes closing escrow in the next few months than what we've seen so far this year, so prospects are starting to brighten for the Home Estate/PUD market in the Santa Barbara area.

On Thursday of last week, an economic forecast was held in town, and Santa Barbara was referred to as 'a virtual island of stability' and sales are expected to go up at least 5% this year.

There were almost 200 new listings that came on the market in March, which was about 25% higher than the same time period last year, but the median list price at which they came on was about 50% higher than the median sold price of the homes that closed escrow. At the end of March, there were about 600 Homes available for purchase from Carpinteria through Goleta, and because a substantial number of homes which came on the market were in Montecito, Hope Ranch, and the higher end sections of Santa Barbara, the median list price for the overall inventory is about $1.9 million with an average list price of about $3.8 million.

A lot of the inventory that was priced from $500,000 to $800,000 has been purchased, so if the market is going to continue forward, the impetus needs to come from the $1 to $2 million buyers. Money is available at great rates for well qualified buyers, and inventory is in place, so we’ll see whether there is sufficient confidence from the $1+ million buyer to start the local Real Estate market moving forward again.

The condo market in the Santa Barbara area is seeing sales numbers beginning to move forward, but very incrementally. The median sales price for the month continues to hover around $500,000, which is a drop of about $62,000 from March ’08, but remaining stable for both years is the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio which has been holding right around 90%. Pendings have gone up quite a bit compared to last year (30 this year for March compared to about half that amount last year).

We do not have a rise in the number of new listings compared to last year. The numbers have stayed about the same, and we have seen a slight rise in the median list price for the condos that came on the market this year. The overall inventory for condos is holding at about 200 for the month of March with a median list price of about $629,000 and an average list price of right around $900,000.

I’m optimistic about the number of escrows opened in March ’09 for both Home Estate/PUDs and Condos. Although our price point is a bit lower than where it was last year at this time, the buyers are starting to show new confidence in the market and this could impact the statistics for the rest of the year.

--Emily K. McBride, Village Properties, Christie's Great Estates