Market Update - Through September 2010

Market Update (Through the end of September 2010 - Santa Barbara South County Real Estate)

**Statistics come out around the 5^th of each month. October statistics will be out soon.

For the Home/Estate market (not including condos) through the end of September, the amount of sales declined compared to August. September showed 74 sales, and August showed 80 sales. Our median sales price went up, however, rising over $100,000 from $776,000 in August to $879,750 in September. The average sales price also went up substantially, rising from about $1.16 million in August to $1.57 million in September.

Looking by District: (Single family homes)

Carpinteria/Summerland 

Sales are up from 52 last year to 55 this year, with the median sales price declining slightly from $687,500 last year to $662,500 this year.

Montecito

Sales are up from 105 in 2009 to 109 in 2010, and the median sales price dropped from $2.57 million last year to $2.41 million this year.

East Side of Santa Barbara

Sales are up almost 20% going from 156 in 2009 to 185 in 2010. The median sales price was $900,000 last year and is currently at $929,000.

West Side of Santa Barbara

Sales are also up over 20% from 114 last year to 142 this year, and the median sales price is up from $730,000 last year to $800,000 this year. It looks like that level of sales and prices should continue on the West Side with pended properties coming in at the same percentage as sales and the median list price on those escrows still hovering right around $800,000.

Hope Ranch

Sales are moving forward from where they were last year. We saw 10 last year, and we have 14 sales this year. The median sales price is also maintaining a lead over last

year when it was $2.175 million. This year those 14 sales have given us a median sales price of $2.675 million and an average sales price of $3.51 million.

Goleta South

There have been 79 sales this year compared to 61 last year, but the median sales price has declined slightly from $700,000 last year to $675,500 this year.

Goleta North

Sales rose from 115 last year to 123 this year, and the median sales price has gone up slightly from $703,000 last year to $710,000 this year.

Comparing September 2010 with its 74 sales and about $880,000 median sales price to

September 2009, we see sales down from the 85 of a year ago, but the median sales price is up from $750,000 last year to $880,000 this year. Essentially for the past 12 months the median sales prices have remained stable from month to month at around $850,000. There have been some peaks and valleys in this time frame, but the overall effect is that the median sales price for the area remains at around $850,000. The decline in the numbers of sales over the past 6 months can be attributed to 3 factors: 1) the end of the 1st Time Buyer Credit, 2) the usual seasonal slowdown and 3) the substantial numbers of foreclosures that we’re still being told are coming from the banks. If and when those foreclosures get released, sales will go up, but the median sales price could see a decline, since foreclosures tend to happen in the lower end of the marketplace, and this will shift the median, which is dependant on the bracket of homes that sell.

For the Condo market in September, sales went up to 23 rising from 22 in the previous month. The median sales price also went up rising from $427,500 in August to $460,000 in September. The average sales price rose from $507,027 to $529,538.

The Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio has remained strong for Condos all year hovering around the mid to low 90th percentile which means that when a property comes on at the right price, it goes out very close to that price. There have been 238 Condo sales through September 2010 compared to 226 at this time last year. The median sales price for 2010 of $437,000 is below the 2009 number of $467,000, but the median list price on the pended properties is $469,000 for both years. I think the disparity in the median sales price and median list price on the pended properties is due to the fact that most of those sub $400,000 condos are gone, so if something is going into escrow it’s higher up in the price range.

Looking at the Districts: (Condos)

Carpinteria/Summerland

The sales are up by about 30% going from 107 to 140. But, the median sales price has declined from $411,500 last year to $385,000 this year.

Montecito

Both sales and prices are up. For 2009 there were only 4 sales compared to 14 this year and the median sales price rose from $697,000 last year to $1,022,500 this year.

East Side of Santa Barbara

There have been 55 sales this year up from 43 last year, but the median sales price is down from $529,500 last year to $475,000 this year.

West Side of Santa Barbara

Sales are up, from 54 to 59 but the median sales price declined slightly from $510,000 last year to $495,000 this year.

Goleta South

Sales dropped by over 40% basically due to a lack of inventory. Last year there were 55 sales and this year there have been 38. The median sales price has also dropped from $453,000 last year to $370,000 this year despite a huge rise in the sales price to original list price ratio, which went up to 97.56%.

Goleta North

Sales have declined, from 38 to 30 for a 23% drop, but unlike Goleta South, the median sales price in the North has gone up from $375,050 to $408,500.

The decline in the numbers of Condo sales is much more pronounced when compared

to the drop in Home sales. Condo buyers would be the ones more substantially affected by the ending of the 1st Time Buyer credit and the numbers we see in this sector more closely resemble the numbers we see in the rest of the country for home sales. Just like with home sales, those three factors of 1st Time Buyer Credit, Seasonal Slowdown and the spectrum of more foreclosures about to be released is affecting whether people are going to buy or not.

Overall Santa Barbara is doing better than most of the rest of the country when you look at the Real Estate market. There is some uncertainty out there, which can make buyers feel timid. The results of the upcoming elections could resolve some of that insecurity, but there are still questions to be answered before we’ll see a big surge in both the number of units sold and a rise in the median sales price combined.