First Quarter Santa Barbara Real Estate Update

First Quarter 2011
Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Update
By Jackie Walters

Spring is here and March has brought a welcomed sense of renewal to the local real estate market, following a sluggish January and February. 135 residential buyers entered escrow in March, compared to 104 in February and 86 in January. The 135 pending sales in March represent four to five South Coast buyers per day writing deposit checks, signing contracts and showing continued confidence in investing in real estate. There were 143 pending sales one year ago, in March 2010, a difference of only 5.9% from last month's number, illustrating the fact that the market has now stabilized and the pace of sales activity is steady and sustained. Even our old friend appreciation is beginning to show its face in certain local entry-level sub-markets.

Let's do a little thumbnail retrospective on the local real estate market over the past several years. The pinnacle of residential real estate values, generally speaking, was in 2005. Most of us wistfully remember what our homes were worth at the "high-tide mark". It is said that "all real estate is local", in fact, as you will see, neighborhoods within a broader market can be on very different courses. Entry-level housing in Goleta and Carpinteria was the first market segment to stall in 2005. Foreclosures followed and bank-owned homes languished unsold month after month. The Santa Barbara market held its own from 2005 through the end of 2007 with a steady median price of around $1.2 million.

Montecito area values defied faltering neighboring markets and enjoyed an almost clockwork annual appreciation of 10% in its median and average price right through the end of 2007. 2008 saw a slow down in sales in the 93108 zip code and a plateauing in values. Following the financial meltdown, 2009 saw drastically reduced sales numbers in the high-end and a steep decline in prices. This was at the same time as sales in entry level homes, in Goleta, Carpinteria and certain Santa Barbara neighborhoods surged back to life absorbing the swollen inventory of distressed homes. Eager buyers took advantage of several government-backed incentive programs, as well as historically low interest rates. Enthusiasm for entry-level housing remains strong today both among cash investors and excited first time buyers. According to the California Association of Realtors, affordability, (the number of households in a community who can afford to buy an entry-level home), is at an amazing 58% -- up from a mere 14% in 2007.

Today's entry-level home buyers need to be prepared for what can be an emotionally draining process. Strong-willed buyers, however, are finding a pot of gold at the end of their journey. One local buyer shopped for over a year putting in various offers on short sales, foreclosures as well as regular sales. For various reasons, often due multiple offers or unrealistic sellers, his offers were never accepted. At times he would sit on the fence for weeks to "catch his breath". Just when he was about to give up on his dream, his Realtor found him a foreclosure property just as it was hitting the market for $417,000. He made an offer of $450,000 and it was accepted. (The very next day someone else made an offer of $500,000 but it was too late.) He has achieved his dream and couldn't be happier. Another couple, after being unsuccessful on 14 different properties, were finally the successful bidders in their 9th multiple offer situation.

The first quarter of 2010 saw a resurrection of the high-end market, with several significant closings in the first quarter over $8 million. Buyers are seeing alluring values everywhere along the South Coast. While activity remains focused in the under $1 million price range, we are seeing an increasing percentage of sales in the over $1 million market and throughout the upper price ranges. Motivated sellers with well-presented and well-priced homes, in all price ranges, will garner buyer attention and possibly even multiple offers. A chic and spacious downtown penthouse, listed for sale for $5,250,000, as unfinished space, just closed.

Table 1 shows a first quarter 2011 median price of $787,500 for houses and PUDs and $399,000 for condos. This is compared to $811,250 and $420,000 respectively for the same period 2010. There were 174 closed escrows for houses and PUDs in the first quarter, the same number as the first quarter of 2010. 66 condos sold in the first quarter of 2010 as compared to 53 condo sales for the first quarter of 2011. Contrary to the widespread notion that inventory numbers are bloated, the current inventory of active residential listings is down to 660 from 677 one year ago.

Table 1 also shows months-of-inventory, often referred to as "market velocity". This statistic illustrates how many months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes, in a particular market segment, at the current pace of sales. Under 3 months of inventory is indicative of a seller's market; 3-6 months-of-inventory could be viewed as a balanced market; 6-9 months-of-inventory is a buyers' market and in excess of 9 months of inventory is a weak or soft market. Months-of-inventory market-wide for all price ranges and all neighborhoods, for condos, houses and PUDs, is 4.9 for March 2011. March 2010 had 4.7 months of inventory.

This month's headline is certainly in the months-of-inventory numbers for Santa Barbara and Montecito. Santa Barbara's 3.5 months-of-inventory for March 2011 is on the threshold of a sellers' market. 49 homes and PUDs entered escrow last month. Montecito's number of 7.7 months-of-inventory is close to half of the number of 13.5 for March 2010. 21 Montecito homes went into escrow last months vs. 13 for March 2010.

Table 2 compares the past year's closed escrow numbers by month to the 5 year average. An upswing in closings for the last two months of 2010 depleted results for January and February 2011; March has seen a nice recovery with 104 residential closings beating the 5-year average of 99 for the month. Sales pending for January through March remained strongly above the month's closed escrow numbers.

Table 3 illustrates the spread of closings by price range. While the bulk of the sales activity remains solidly in the $500,000 to $700,000 price range, you will also see a nice spread of activity in the upper ranges.

With the recession officially over in the summer of 2009, the first quarter of 2011 finds the South Coast real estate market in bloom. In her recent local presentation, Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, declared that "the worst is over" and "we are in recovery". She predicts a rise of approximately 2% in California's median price for 2011 and that coastal communities will lead the way. In our beloved Santa Barbara and surrounding areas, where one of the leading industries is the business of "residential living" the real estate market seems to reflect the promise of spring!